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Power Transmission: PTDA 2004 Canadian Conference |
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| Education Initiative, Economic Outlook Announced |
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Page 2 of 2
 | | Retirement roast gift: Longtime FAG Bearings Canadian president Bob Marshall with wife Dolores. |
While Holderbaum portrayed a U.S. economic recovery moving from slow to robust as Timken Steel's operating plan in November/December 2003 originally forecast industrial production there to be 3.5% for 2004. "It's now on track for 5.8%."
However, Andersen's forecast for industrial production in Canada's manufacturing heartland of Ontario, isn't nearly as rosy with structural problems in the automotive industry continuing. "Real GDP in the province will only be up 2.2% in 2004 and will be hard-pressed to reach 3.1% in 2005." He added that stimulus could trickle up from the U.S. "There is good news in capital spending. Companies there are not just replacing computers but industrial machinery as well. And fortunately the Canadian dollar has peaked." Andersen predicts it will be under $0.70 by September.
Alberta and B.C. appear to the winners in Canada, said Andersen, with real GDP forecast to rise from 2004 to 2005 by 3.6% to 3.8% in the former and 2.8% to 3.4% in the latter.
In the PTDA Market Outlook Report presented to the conference and compiled from manufacturer members data across Canada, the first three months of 2004 show dollar percentage rises of 8.3%, 6.4% and 15.4% over the prior month in January, February and March, respectively.
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